Gold Price is licking its wounds after Tuesday’s extended correction from six-week highs of $1,998. XAUUSD seems to be benefiting from the retreat in the US dollar alongside the Treasury yields. However, the risks appear skewed to the downside for Gold Price, as the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields hit the highest in two years on Wednesday, extending into positive territory for the second straight day. Surging US real returns on faster Fed rate hikes expectations will continue to remain a headwind for Gold Price. Gold traders now look forward to the upcoming Fed commentary and the Beige Book for fresh trading impetus.
Gold Price: Key levels to watch
The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price tested the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day at $1,951 on its minor recovery mode.
The next relevant resistance is aligned at the SMA10 one-day at $1,954, above which the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week at $1,956 could come into play.
The confluence of the previous year’s high, Fibonacci 61.8% one-month and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,960 will be the level to beat for Gold buyers.
On the flip side, the SMA100 four-hour around $1,943 will offer initial support, below which the previous week’ low at $1,940 could be probed.
The last line of defence for gold bulls is seen at the pivot point one-day S1 at $1,935.
Gold technical picture for 2022
The article presents recent technical picture of gold for 2022 using long term yearly chart. Gold prices increase as a result of the base formation at the forecasted inflection number of $1,680. Price rise by more than $300 as a result of the deep investigation by Gold Predictors in 2021. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly altered the global geopolitical situation. Numerous assumptions can be made based on the current state of the war. However, it is assumed that the war will not be resolved by 2022, and consequences will have impact on gold.
The chart below was posted to various social media channels on November 19, 2021, and depicts the yearly outlook for gold on a logarithmic scale. For the year 2021, a bullish inside yearly candle was expected. The inside candle is a compression candle that appears after a period of wide consolidation, and the highs and lows are within the previous candle. Any breakout from the inside candle indicates a large move. Since the yearly candle for 2021 was forecasted to be an inside candle, the year 2021 was expected a consolidation year. This prediction was proven with a 100% success rate because 2021 was a consolidation year between $2,100 and $1,680, which are both yearly inflection numbers calculated by the Gold Predictors Analysts.
The 50 years chart reveals only 9 inside yearly candles for the years 1975, 1977, 1988, 1994, 1995, 2000, 2012, 2017, and 2018. The next expected inside candle was due in 2021, and already produced, with price highs and lows within 2020. It is easy to see in the chart that gold prices are likely to trade with sharp moves following the formation of the inside yearly candles. The sharp moves after the bullish inside candles can be seen in the years 1977, 2000, and 2018. The situation was different for inside yearly candles of 1988, 1994, and 1995 because gold was in a long-term consolidation phase from the year 1980 to 2000. However, once the year 2000 candle was broken, prices began a nearly ten-year rally that culminated in the cyclical high in 2011.
The chart also shows that the inside yearly candle of 2012 has been reversed since the lows of the inside candle were broken to the downside, and the long-term cycle high was registered in 2011, indicating a breakdown and consolidation for at least 3-4 years after 2012.
The confirmation year
Looking for the confirmation candle after the inside candle is another way to read the chart. In the above chart, there are nine inside yearly candles. The confirmation is only seen in the 1977, 2001, and 2018 yearly candles, where three largest rallies began in following years. As a result, based on the breakout from 2021 inside the yearly candle, 2022 and 2023 must be the years when the next unstoppable rally may begin. This analysis will be expanded on the quarterly and monthly charts for premium members to determine the time zone for the next upward move.
The chart above depicts a log view of the most recent gold yearly chart, which confirms the 2021 yearly candle as the inside candle and points to higher prices. We’ve been discussing with premium members the significance of $2,075 as the yearly pivot for 2022, and the rally has already reached the pivot of $2,075, followed by a significant pullback to the $1,920 support region. All eyes are now focused on the breakout from the yearly inside candle at $2,075-$2,100.
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