Inflation
● Core CPI MoM most important
● Fell from 0.6% to 0.3% last time

What I expect
● Strong inflation
● Markets to freak out
● Dollar to surge, then calm ahead of the Fed.

Slowing down
● Because Powell said so
● Moderation as soon as December
● 50 bps on the cards

Mixed US economy
● Manufacturing is down, services are up
● Housing cools but stabilizes
● Consumers are crying buy buying

Strong jobs market
● NFP at 263K, above pre-pandemic levels, beating estimates
● Wages saw a bump up in November
● But household survey quite flat
● JOLTs off the highs

Powell
● Latest speech was dovish
● Softer tone than dots suggest
● Doesn’t want to wreck economy, overtighten

Relative calm
● Politics are stable for now
● Inflation probably dropped in November
● No press conference
But

What I expect
● A 50 bps to calm things down
● Hints that the BOE intends to further slow down
● Pound falls

The weather
● No worries of shortages
● But high gas prices hurt economy