Understanding the Impact: Analyzing the Recent Decline in US GDP - 28-2-2024

Consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, non-residential fixed investment, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment all contributed to the increase in real GDP (table 2). GDP is subtracted by imports.

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Both services and goods contributed to the increase in consumer spending. Healthcare and food services were the leading contributors to services. Recreational goods and vehicles (led by computer software) and other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products) contributed the most to the growth in goods. Services and goods (led by petroleum) both increased within exports. Spending by state and local governments increased primarily because of increases in employee compensation and infrastructure investments. Increasing intellectual property products, structures, and equipment contributed to the increase in non-residential fixed investment. Nondefense spending led the increase in federal government spending. Wholesale trade industries led the increase in inventory investment. Residential fixed investment increased as new residential structures were built, partially offset by lower broker commissions. Services (delivered by travel) accounted for the majority of the increase within imports.

A slower pace of private inventory investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer spending contributed to the fall in real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter. Imports slowed.

In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP increased by 4.8 percent to $27.94 trillion, an increase of $328.7 billion. $547.1 billion was added to the GDP in the third quarter, which is an increase of 8.3 percent.

Compared to the third quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. In contrast to an increase of 2.6 percent, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.7 percent.

A PCE price index that excludes food and energy prices increased 2.0 percent, the same as the third quarter.

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