Gold Traders Watch Out: Key Levels Before US Data & Fed Speech on 16th April 2025

On April 16, 2025, the U.S. economy exhibited robust consumer activity, with retail sales increasing by 1.3% month-over-month, surpassing the anticipated 0.2% growth. This surge indicates strong consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. Concurrently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, emphasizing the need for a “restrictive” monetary policy stance to ensure inflation trends toward the 2% target.

Today’s given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/18008

The U.S. Retail Sales for March 2025 grew by +1.3% month-over-month, far exceeding expectations. The main reasons for this strong figure are:

✅ 1. Rising Wages & Employment

The U.S. labor market remained strong, with continued job creation and wage growth.
More disposable income encouraged higher consumer spending.

✅ 2. Lower Energy Prices

A recent drop in gasoline prices freed up consumer budgets, leading to more non-essential purchases.

✅ 3. Spring Season & Easter Holiday Boost

Seasonal events like Easter in late March boosted retail shopping for clothing, food, and electronics.

✅ 4. Strong Consumer Confidence

Optimism about the economy (backed by strong employment and stable inflation) led to higher discretionary spending.

Impact of Good US Retail Sales Data on XAU/USD (Gold)

📉 Likely Bearish Impact on Gold Prices

Why?

Stronger Retail Sales = Stronger USD
- Higher consumer spending boosts GDP expectations.
- This raises the odds of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates, supporting the U.S. dollar (USDX).
Higher Interest Rate Expectations = Less Demand for Gold
- Gold is a non-yielding asset, so rising rates reduce its appeal.
- If yields rise on the back of strong retail data, gold usually corrects lower.

Historical Context:

Previous released data results :

On last Retail sale data (17-3-2025) we predicted good data, & as per that we suggest to SELL XAUUSD & as a result, we made a profit of 23 points according to the signal we gave.

Check the previous blog : https://blog.forextrade1.co/connection-between-us-retail-sales-data-and-gold-price-17-3-2025/

Check last given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/17484

Performance : https://t.me/calendarsignal/17494