A Note on Russia and Ukraine conflict

IMHO – Russia has taken call on Europe with Deep thoughts and intense Economic and Political reasons.

Current Ukraine -Russia Conflicts has two parties in play –

A. Russia backed by China (others like Suadi Arbia and ors are yet to open their cards)

And

B. USA backed by NATO (!)

On the one side – Russia and China are having deep commercial and political interest to align and remain aligned in this conflict for their economic and political interest

On the other side – USA and NATO does not have same aligned interest (Germany and France are a crack in the unity of other side – because of their Economic interest and dependence on Fuel supply from Russia. They know, this conflict – if escalated will lead to very high fuel cost leading to cripple their economy and may be having big internal Political debacle). Hence USA lead parties will be having challenges to remain aligned and fight whole heartedly. (Ukraine is still not a NATO member).

On strategic side –

Russia is yet to forget USSR break by USA and want to control part of Ukraine so that their gas stream supply to Europe remains in their control and that too without any royalty. Putin ambition of showing its strength has now got wings.

China – Russia Alliance and support suit China most, because of their expansionary policy of Taiwan….. If Russia backout or looses and pass through severe sanctions, China wins because it will act as the lead consumer and support

xpansionary policy will get wings, Taiwan will be the next in line …..

Ukraine – Not equipped or gear to handle the situation of its own, will look for either a amicable solution or help from West, especially USA / UK.

USA – USA knows that if Russia, China and Europe start trading in their local currency that their supremacy as global leader will crack . If Global dollar trade fall below 35% and more
USA will no more be a power and reserve currency of the world. In my humble view, a broken country will be accepted as bankrupt country and investment will run away.. which USA will never like to have.

Further USA for a longtime .. since Iraq war has not got rid of its stale war fare and a place to check and showcase its newer weaponry / ammunition. What can be the best time and location.! Further, USA is using others land to show its might and is believing that distance is so wide to feel heat at its own country.

SO —- For USA your loss is my gain

IMHO – If the conflict last for short term USA will be a gainer; if it prolongs USA will suffer more than anyone else. If it converts into a war … Europe and USA will suffer most… because they are being Democratic countries.

(Needless to say, that a long war is killing for all the countries)

Europe – Already struggling with economic woes … will suffer most … be this conflict or the war … be it short term or long term

Germany and France, because of their overdependence on Russia supply of fuels is likely to be impacted most. Their fuel cost will go up, inflation will be at peak.

Whether they like or not, being a NATO alliance; they have to participate / pay for this conflict / War …

Entire Europe, especially – Germany and France economies will suffer hugely and may see political challenges in their own land

IMHO, Germany and France would like to keep a safe distance and participate as NATO member with extreme cautious or maybe they decide a bit more aggressively on their economic and political interest.

UK – a tail goes where master go. Seeing their current Political situation, we don’t see any major strategic input from UK…

Asian countries – Will suffer because of its over dependence on oil import. Its economy will be impacted because of increase import and lower export. Political impact is difficult to define currently.

What do we see –
a. Russia has prepared itself for a long-drawn conflict / war. They have converted their reserves into Gold and Chinese currency.

have buyers and suppliers like china to survive for long term meaningfully.

b. Considering current situation and USA aggressive posturing, it’s a Big challenge for USA not to take any action… if they don’t … they lose their Mighty .. will look spineless. If they go aggressively… they have to suffer because of initial cost of the war …

Let’s see… who found the better solution…

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