US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to rise by 200,000 in November, rebounding from October’s modest 12,000 gain, which was impacted by hurricanes and a Boeing strike. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release this key report on Friday at 13:30 GMT, crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut plans and the US Dollar’s direction.
Economists predict the Unemployment Rate will edge up to 4.2% from 4.1% in October, while Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are forecast to increase by 3.9% year-over-year, slightly down from 4.0% in October. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently emphasized a cautious approach to rate cuts, citing steady economic growth and a solid labor market. Analysts at TD Securities expect job additions of around 75,000 as prior distortions subside, with wage growth likely slowing to 0.2% month-over-month from October’s 0.4% increase.
Today’s given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/16268
The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for December 2024 will be released today at 13:30 GMT. Being the final NFP data of the year, this release holds significant importance, as it may directly influence the upcoming Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision.
Market Impact Expectations
» A strong NFP report could confirm a 0.25% rate cut, signaling a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve.
»Conversely, weak data may prompt the Fed to reconsider or delay the anticipated rate cut.
Key Scenarios and Their Expected Impact
Scenario 1: Strong NFP Data
NFP: Above 250k
Unemployment Rate: Below 4.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE): Above 0.4%
Market Impact:
»Gold (XAU/USD): Strong bearish movement due to higher USD strength.
US Dollar Index (DXY): Bullish momentum as strong labor data boosts confidence in the USD.
Scenario 2: Weak NFP Data
NFP: Below 190k
Unemployment Rate: Above 4.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE): Below 0.3%
Market Impact:
Gold (XAU/USD): Strong bullish movement as USD weakens.
US Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish movement reflecting weaker economic outlook.
Scenario 3: Mixed or Neutral NFP Data
NFP: Near 200k
Unemployment Rate: Around 4.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE): Between 0.3% and 0.4%
Market Impact:
Gold (XAU/USD) and DXY: Choppy movements as markets seek clarity on Federal Reserve actions.
Volatility Alert
As this is the final NFP release of 2024, heightened volatility is expected in Gold (XAU/USD) and major USD currency pairs. Traders should anticipate large price swings and plan their strategies accordingly.
Opportunity for Traders
This event offers a significant opportunity to achieve 10% or more profit with calculated risk. However, prudent risk management is crucial due to potential market unpredictability.
Previous released data results :
On last US PCE Data (01-11-2024) we predict good NFP data, & as per that we suggest to SELL XAUUSD & as a result, we made a profit of 53 points according to the signal we gave.
Check the previous blog : https://blog.forextrade1.co/nfp-trends-whats-next-for-gold/
Check last given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/15798
Performance : https://t.me/calendarsignal/15817
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