Forecasting Gold Trends in Based on US Non ISM Manufacturing & Jolts job opening data – 7-1-2025

1. Strong Economic Performance Strengthens the U.S. Dollar
   Non-ISM Manufacturing data reflects the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A higher-than-expected reading (e.g., above 55) signals robust business activity. Simultaneously, elevated JOLTS job openings (e.g., surpassing 10.5 million) imply a resilient labor market with strong hiring prospects. Such data instills confidence in the U.S. economy, bolstering the U.S. dollar.

Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, reducing global demand.

2. Hawkish Federal Reserve Expectations
   The Federal Reserve closely monitors manufacturing and employment data for monetary policy decisions. Strong Non-ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS figures suggest persistent economic momentum, possibly fueling inflationary pressures. The Fed is more likely to maintain or increase interest rates under these conditions.

Higher interest rates make alternative yield-bearing assets like bonds and treasuries more attractive than gold, which does not provide any yield.

3. Reduced Safe-Haven Demand
   Gold thrives in uncertain economic conditions as a hedge against risk. Strong manufacturing and labor market data reduce concerns about economic slowdown, shifting investor sentiment toward riskier assets like equities. As risk appetite grows, gold’s demand wanes, pressuring its price downward.