Global Oil Market Overview and Breakeven Analysis Report

Introduction
This report provides a structured and comprehensive overview of the oil production landscape,
focusing on both OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing entities as of April 2025. It includes production
volumes, breakeven costs, and fiscal breakeven estimates for major oil companies and producing
countries. Additionally, the report offers analysis of recent oil price volatility driven by geopolitical
and market dynamics.
OPEC Oil-Producing Companies
OPEC’s 12 member countries are primarily represented by national oil companies (NOCs). Below are
key players and their approximate production figures as of 2023–2024:

Saudi Arabia – Saudi Aramco
Production: ~9.0 million bpd
Notes: World’s largest exporter; ~17% of global reserves
Iran – NIOC
Production: ~3.2 million bpd
Notes: Rising despite sanctions
Iraq – INOC
Production: ~4.1 million bpd
Notes: Aims for 6 million bpd by 2030
UAE – ADNOC
Production: ~3.2 million bpd
Notes: Expanding capacity to 5 million bpd by 2027
Kuwait – KPC
Production: ~2.5 million bpd
Notes: Significant spare capacity
Venezuela – PDVSA
Production: ~0.9 million bpd
Notes: Heavily affected by sanctions and mismanagement
Nigeria – NNPC
Production: ~1.4 million bpd
Notes: Faces challenges from theft and unrest
Libya – NOC
Production: ~1.2 million bpd
Notes: Volatile due to instability
Algeria – Sonatrach
Production: ~1.0 million bpd
Notes: Also a major gas producer
Equatorial Guinea – GEPetrol
Production: ~0.1 million bpd
Notes: Offshore decline
Gabon – Gabon Oil Company
Production: ~0.2 million bpd
Notes: Offshore focus
Republic of the Congo – SNPC
Production: ~0.3 million bpd
Notes: Small but growing production
Total OPEC Crude Production (2023): ~27–28 million bpd

Non-OPEC Oil-Producing Companies
Key companies and production levels from leading non-OPEC nations include:

United States – ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.
Total U.S. Crude: ~13.2 million bpd
Notes: Driven by shale (Permian Basin)
Russia – Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom Neft
Total: ~9.2 million bpd
Notes: Sanctions and OPEC+ quotas impact
Canada – Suncor, CNRL, Cenovus
Total: ~4.5 million bpd
Notes: Oil sands dominate
China – CNPC, Sinopec
Total: ~4.2 million bpd
Notes: Aging fields with some growth
Brazil – Petrobras
Total: ~3.2 million bpd
Notes: Pre-salt offshore drives growth
Norway – Equinor
Total: ~1.8 million bpd
Notes: Strong offshore leader
Mexico – Pemex
Total: ~1.6 million bpd
Notes: Declining production
Guyana – Exxon-led consortium
Total: ~0.6 million bpd (2024)
Notes: Rapid growth from Stabroek
Total Non-OPEC Crude Production (2023): ~53–54 million bpd

Saudi Arabia – Aramco
Production Breakeven: $3–$10
Fiscal Breakeven: $80–$100
U.S. Shale
Production Breakeven: $35–$50
Fiscal Breakeven: N/A
Russia – Rosneft, Lukoil
Production Breakeven: $15–$25
Fiscal Breakeven: $50–$60
Canada – Oil Sands
Production Breakeven: $40–$60
Fiscal Breakeven: N/A
Venezuela – PDVSA
Production Breakeven: $20–$30
Fiscal Breakeven: $120–$150
Iran – NIOC
Production Breakeven: $15–$25
Fiscal Breakeven: $130–$150
Brazil – Petrobras
Production Breakeven: $35–$45
Fiscal Breakeven: $60–$70

April 2025 Oil Price Shock Analysis
A sharp drop in oil prices occurred over April 2–3, 2025. Potential reasons include:

OPEC+ increased production by 400,000–500,000 bpd (above expectations)
U.S. imposed new tariffs on major oil consumers (China, Mexico, Canada)
Economic data signaled weak demand (e.g., U.S. gasoline demand down to 8.7M bpd)
Panic selling amplified by speculative trading and algorithmic strategies
Impact:
Oil prices dropped from ~$74/barrel to ~$65–68 in 48 hours, a ~10–12% fall.

Conclusion
This report outlines the complex and evolving dynamics of global oil markets.
Key takeaways:

Low-cost producers like Saudi Aramco remain highly profitable even during price drops.
Countries with high fiscal breakevens (Iran, Venezuela) face budget pressures.
U.S. shale and emerging regions like Guyana are driving non-OPEC growth.
Market volatility remains a function of both supply decisions and global economic sentiment.

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