Gold (XAUUSD) is trading with a bearish bias ahead of key US macro releases scheduled for 13:45 GMT (ADP Employment) and 15:00 GMT (ISM data). While the data is not released yet, expectations of strong US economic readings, combined with lower geopolitical tension and an extension of the US government shutdown deadline to 13 February 2026, are reducing near-term demand for gold.
Today’s given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/23398
1. Anticipation of Strong ADP & ISM Data
ADP employment and ISM surveys are closely watched indicators of US economic momentum. If today’s data prints stronger than expected, it would signal:
- Continued labor market strength
- Economic resilience
- Reduced urgency for Fed rate cuts
This typically supports US yields and the US Dollar, both of which are negative for gold, as XAUUSD offers no yield.
2. Lower Geopolitical Tension
Easing global tensions have reduced safe-haven demand. When geopolitical risks fade, investors usually rotate away from defensive assets like gold and toward equities and higher-yielding instruments, putting pressure on XAUUSD.
3. US Shutdown Fear Extended to 13 Feb 2026
The extension of the US government shutdown deadline has lowered immediate fiscal risk. This removes another layer of uncertainty that often supports gold during periods of political stress.
Possible Scenarios for Gold Price
- Strong ADP & ISM: USD strength continues, gold breaks support, XAUUSD moves lower
- Mixed Data: Short-term volatility, range-bound price action
- Weak Data: Temporary gold bounce, but upside may be capped by reduced risk demand
Previous released data results :
On last US ADP & ISM Data (7-1-2026) we predicted good data, & as per that we suggest to SELL XAUUSD & as a result, we made a profit of 87 points according to the signal we gave.
Check the previous blog : https://blog.forextrade1.co/gold-outlook-ahead-of-us-adp-ism-data-will-xau-usd-face-selling-pressure-6-1-2026/
Check last given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/22721
Performance : https://t.me/calendarsignal/22761
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