On June 11, 2025, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released with higher‑than‑expected inflation, signalling a concerning rise in prices.
Today’s given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/18976
Key Data Highlights & Themes
- Headline CPI jumped by +2.5% YoY in May, up from 2.3%, reversing several months of decline
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to +2.9%, the highest in four months.
- Analysts attribute the rise to tariff-induced price increases, particularly in consumer goods and services.
- Some suggest the increase may be temporarily magnified by base-year effects, not underlying demand pressures.
Why This Is “Bad” for Gold (XAU/USD)
- Fed Rate Hike Pressure
- Elevated CPI reduces near-term chances of rate cuts; might even prompt rate hikes, making gold less attractive compared to yield-bearing assets.
- Stronger U.S. Dollar
- Rising interest-rate expectations generally strengthen the USD, which typically pushes gold prices lower.
- Cost of Holding Gold Rises
- Gold’s appeal diminishes when real yields turn positive: inflation up and rates higher means higher opportunity cost.
What New Traders Should Know
- CPI is a key macro event: it directly influences Fed policy expectations and the USD/gold relationship.
- Core CPI matters most: the Fed treats this as its preferred inflation indicator.
- Trade tariffs are working: tariff pressures are now filtering through consumer prices.
- Expect volatility: sharp CPI moves often cause strong, swift swings in gold price—traders should use stop-loss and risk limits.
Today’s stronger CPI data signals inflation persistence—bad news for gold. Expect downward pressure on gold prices (~1–2%) if markets confirm Fed stays hawkish. Traders should watch for follow-up statements (Fed speakers, tariffs) and use well-defined risk management strategies amid heightened volatility.
Previous released data results :
On last CPI data (13-5-2025) we predicted higher data, & as per that we suggest to SELL XAUUSD & as a result, we made a profit of 102 points according to the signal we gave.
Check the previous blog : https://blog.forextrade1.co/gold-moves-on-inflation-news-what-cpi-means-for-xau-usd-today-13-5-2025/
Check last given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/18456
Performance : https://t.me/calendarsignal/18476
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