Mathematical Analysis of NFP Impact on Today Markets : 7-2-2025

On February 7, 2025, the U.S. released its Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a critical indicator of labor market health. The report revealed an addition of 256,000 jobs in December 2024.

Today’s given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/16920

Key Variables & Definitions:

▪️N = Actual Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report

▪️Nexp = Expected NFP value (170K)

▪️D = US Dollar Index (DXY)

▪️G = Gold (XAU/USD)

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Mathematical Scenarios for NFP Release

1. NFP Stronger than Expected (N>170K)

▪️USD (D) ⬆️ (Bullish, strengthens).

▪️Gold (G)⬇️ (Bearish, declines).

Formula for Expected Market Reaction:

D=f(N−Nexp)(Higher NFP = Stronger USD)

▪️If 𝑁>200K → Strong bullish USD reaction.

▪️If N is slightly above 170K → Moderate impact.

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2. NFP Matches Expectations (N = 170K)

▪️USD (D) → Neutral, minimal movement.

▪️Gold (G) → Slight movement based on revisions or wage growth.

Market moves will be influenced by:

Revisions to Nprev (If previous NFP is revised up/down)

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3.NFP Below Expectations (N<170k)

▪️USD (D) → ⬇️Bearish,Weakness

▪️Gold (G)→ ⬆️Bullish, Rises

Formula for Weaker NFP Impact:

D = f(Nexp – N) (Lower NFP = Weaker USD)

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Conclusion:

▪️If NFP beats 200K significantly → USD bullish, Gold bearish.

▪️If NFP is near expectations → Limited market reaction.

▪️If NFP is weak (sub-140K) → USD bearish, Gold bullish.

Previous released data results :

On last NFP data (10-1-2025) we predicted good data, & as per that we suggest to SELL XAUUSD & as a result, we made a profit of 62 points according to the signal we gave.

Check the previous blog : https://blog.forextrade1.co/today-nonfarm-payrolls-mathematical-analysis-and-market-implications-10-1-2025/

Check last given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/16552
Performance : https://t.me/calendarsignal/16575