US Inflation
Fed decision

Mixed US economy
● Manufacturing is down, services are up
● Housing cools but stabilizes
● Consumers are crying buy buying

Powell
● Latest speech was dovish
● Softer tone than dots suggest
● Doesn’t want to wreck economy, overtighten
BOE

Relative calm
● Politics are stable for now
● Inflation probably dropped in November
● No press conference
But
Uncertainties
● Next moves in energy prices
● Brexit
● Political stability
● Another 75 bps like last time?
● Most probably 50 bps


What I expect
● A 50 bps to calm things down
● Hints that the BOE intends to further slow down
● Pound falls
ECB
Confusing times
● Unclear if 50 or 75 bps
● Forecasts are darker than reality
The weather
● Forecasts point to recession in 2023
● ECB’s window closing
What I expect
● A 75 bps hike to appease hawks
● Taking advantage of growth so far
● High core inflation
● But gloomier forecasts in staff projections
● Promises to slow down next moves
● Always a compromise in Europe
● EUR/USD to rise on rate hike
● Fall with Lagarde

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