As of now, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data has not yet been released (scheduled for 13:30 GMT). However, current macro signals suggest downside risk for XAUUSD.
Today’s given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/23712
Why Gold Could Fall
- Stronger U.S. Initial Claims (Lower Claims = Stronger Labor Market)
If claims come in better than expected, it reinforces economic resilience. A strong labor market reduces expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields—both negative for gold. - Less Dovish Fed Minutes
Recent commentary from the Federal Reserve indicates policymakers are cautious about easing too soon. A higher-for-longer rate outlook raises real yields, pressuring non-yielding assets like gold. - Geopolitical De-escalation
Progress in Ukraine–Russia peace discussions and renewed United States–Iran dialogue reduces safe-haven demand.
Possible Scenarios for Gold (Post 13:30 GMT)
🔹 Scenario 1: Claims Better Than Expected (Bullish USD)
- Dollar strengthens
- Bond yields rise
- Risk sentiment improves
- XAUUSD likely drops sharply
- Example: If gold is trading near $2,020, a strong data print could push it toward $1,990–$1,970 support.
🔹 Scenario 2: Claims Worse Than Expected
- Dollar weakens
- Rate-cut bets increase
- Safe-haven demand rises
- XAUUSD may spike higher, possibly retesting recent highs.
Previous released data results :
On last US Initial Jobless claims data (12-2-2026) we predicted lower data, & as per that we suggest to SELL XAUUSD & as a result, we made a profit of 310 points according to the signal we gave.
Check the previous blog : https://blog.forextrade1.co/jobless-claims-expected-is-xauusd-heading-for-a-pullback-12th-feb-2026/
Check last given signal : https://t.me/calendarsignal/23588
Performance : https://t.me/calendarsignal/23622
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